Idle Thoughts III
The Problem with Statistics
I'm not a statistics expert, but I know it's a tricky subject. As the designer of a system to track incidents and accidents at a major para-public institution, I saw first-hand how challenging it can be to build and study a database of information.
Lets look at an example of statistical information that we often hear: Bear Attack Fatalities
Statistics show that being killed by a bear is extremely unlikely. If you compare all fatalities, the odds of being killed by a bear is in the neighbourhood of 'a-million-to-one'. A person is more likely to be killed by a dog and something like 2000 times more likely to be killed in a vehicle accident.
People, even otherwise intelligent people, don't adjust their thinking in the woods. If you're wandering around in the bush and get yourself between a mother and her cubs, it's no longer a million-to-one chance that you'll be attacked. Now it may be a near certainty.
If you approach a grizzly bear for a 'selfie', you are almost sure to become a statistic.
As far as predatory animals go, the polar bear is the biggest on the planet. Luckily, they live where few humans go. However, if you're in Churchill in the spring, you can't rely on statistics to protect you. I saw a program once that showed a house with the front door full of long nails sticking through it so as to prevent polar bears from pushing in the door.
The problem with statistics is that they are broad-based and theoretical and yet widely understood to be specific truisms. They are as dangerous as bears.
Trump
We just got back from the Toronto Boat Show and I was struck by how different the modern cruiser looks from the older cruisers. I much prefer the classic look of older cruisers and I'm old enough to know that the real old cruisers were built better. Modern materials are better, but modern methods are not better, just different. Boats have to be built quickly today and, like everything else, there is no 'overbuilding' in the structure of modern boats.
Donald Trump as U. S. President is rather unsettling. Unsettling to me that is. Not unsettling to Americans. They voted for him.
The question is "why?" Why do I feel the way I do about Donald Trump being President. I could list the actual concerns I have, like; He twists the truth constantly, he has no political experience, he talks down to women, he ignores the rule that states he cannot profit from his position, he agrees with torture, etc, etc. I could list things, but the real reason that I am rattled by this turn of events is because The 'Donald Trump' situation is a macrocosm of the changes that have happened to individuals.
I believe that, in reality, the average individual American shows warning signs of a disorder known as "Celebrity Worship Syndrome". I say warning signs because this is a real disorder and only a small percentage of people are actually 'obsessed' with celebrities.
However, it's my opinion that a major percentage of the population has a mild form of it, or of something similar. I also believe that it is becoming more and more prevalent in the population because of the internet and social media.
People believe that, because someone is a celebrity, they must know things we mortals don't. They must be right. They can take care of things.
This mild form of celebrity worship is combined, dangerously, with another recent and widespread personality disorder. It is a need for instant gratification. People want an instant answer. An instant solution.
"Put Her in Jail." "Build a Wall." "Send Them Back." "Ban Muslims." "Make America Great Again."
Unfortunately, anything that sounds like an instant fix will make most Americans happy. Trump is a man who knows marketing well. He knows how to market Donald Trump. He knows that, when he says outrageous things, he'll be all over the news. He'll be in our face. Constantly. It doesn't matter what he says. It matters that his mouth is moving. He knows if he bends the truth or flat-out lies, that the media will spend even more time talking about Trump. Then he'll get the chance to 'explain', giving him more air time. It's all about publicity and he knows it. He is enabled by it.
I'm afraid this new reality is with us to stay and I'm not comfortable with it. It's scary. However, as I grapple to understand why, I am beginning to understand that this is a kind of 'natural evolution' of the American species. I just hope they can evolve back. I hope there is a saturation pont beyond which people start to turn him off and go back to valuing substance.
Important Financial Information
We received a piece of junk mail. But it didn't look like junk mail. The envelope had an address window with our name and address. It was "Important Financial Information" from a place called 'Money Mart'.
So I wrote back to them and marked on the outside of the envelope "Information Enclosed is Guaranteed to Save Your Company Money".
Inside I marked, "Save on stamps - Don't send me Junk!"
Is Stephen Hawking A Dumbass?
No, I don't think so. I think he's saying all those doom and gloom predictions because they are quite likely to come true if we're not careful about our planet.
Except. . . . I disagree that we should be looking elsewhere for a place to call home. Think about it. The other 'worlds' that we have access to are so inhospitable that it takes a million-dollar space suit just to exist and breathe air (that we bring from earth).
Our energies, as a species, should be directed toward securing peace on this planet and protecting nature. Toward conserving and expanding our fresh water supply. Toward sharing our abundant food resources and toward ensuring that every person on the planet is free, healthy and happy. Wait! What am I saying? That'll never happen! Get me outta here!
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